China could next year notch up growth of 9 percent, or even above, as the world’s fourth-largest economy pulls out all stops to stimulate investment and consumption, the nation’s top think tank said on Tuesday.

“I think China can achieve 9 percent GDP growth, or even higher,” said Wang Tongsan, a senior economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), at a news conference releasing the academy’s annual economic forecast, or Blue Book.

“The possibility is quite high - it could be at least 70 percent possible that GDP growth reaches 9 percent next year.”

The economic forecast research team said in an article in the CASS blue book that next year, economic growth could reach 9.3 percent, compared with this year’s estimated 9.8 percent.

Zheng Jingping, an official at the National Bureau of Statistics, also said in an article for the CASS book that growth would be about 9 percent next year.

The forecasts are higher than those made by international organizations.

The World Bank said last month that China’s growth may slow to 7.5 percent next year, the lowest since 1990. Though the bank expects 9.4 percent growth this year, it said the global financial crisis would take a greater toll in 2009.

An Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development report said China’s growth next year could be 8 percent, while the International Monetary Fund put it at 8.5 percent.

The CASS’ Wang said the government’s forceful stimulus moves would make a big difference next year. “We believe the pro-active policies to stimulate domestic demand will work and the effect will be impressive,” Wang said, referring to the country’s $586 billion stimulus plan announced on Nov 9.

Local governments have also pledged to follow suit to help prevent the national economy from sliding further after it registered an annualized 9 percent growth in the third quarter of this year, compared to nearly 12 percent for last year.

The central bank slashed the benchmark interest rates by 1.08 percentage points last week, the steepest cut in 11 years, to reduce borrowing costs for enterprises and individuals, and bolster confidence.

More supportive fiscal and monetary policies are believed to be in the pipeline, analysts said.

Given the serious global financial turmoil and economic slowdown, China would not be unscathed but “we should be confident in China’s stable economic growth, or relatively high growth”, Wang said.

He said there are two prerequisites for the GDP to grow by at least 9 percent: The US economy does not significantly worsen and China’s pro-growth economic policies are well implemented.

The CASS team also forecast that China’s consumer price index (CPI), the key gauge of inflation, could drop to 4.3 percent next year from more than 6 percent this year.

“The falling trend of CPI is entrenched,” said Wang, adding it would not rebound in the coming months.

Zheng from the NBS put CPI growth much lower for next year, at around 3 percent.

The urban jobless rate, meanwhile, could rise to 4.5 percent next year from this year’s 4 percent, according to a forecast by Fan Jianping, an economist from at the State Information Center.

China’s top economic policy makers will meet next week to decide how to secure growth of at least 8 percent, outpacing the World Bank’s more pessimistic forecast, government officials said Tuesday.

The annual Central Economic Work Conference, scheduled for Monday through Wednesday, will tackle ways to implement the recently adopted “expansive” fiscal policy and “moderately easy” monetary policy, officials said.

Also on Tuesday, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences predicted that China’s economy could sustain growth of around 9 percent next year because of the concerted world effort to counter the financial crisis.

Annual growth in gross domestic product slowed to 9 percent in the third quarter and is expected to end the year at about the same level, compared with last year’s 11.9 percent.

The minimum growth rate that China needs to absorb the millions of people entering the workforce every year is widely regarded to be 8 percent.

The top priority for next year is to maintain steady economic growth, said officials attending a recent preliminary meeting for the yearly economic summit. They noted that the central government has set next year’s economic growth target at above 8 percent, the Shanghai Securities News reported yesterday, citing unnamed sources.

The meeting was attended by members of the Communist Party of China’s politburo.

“Amid the grim outlook for the world economy, sustaining growth will no doubt become the theme of this year’s Central Economic Work Conference,” said one of the officials attending the session.

The target set by the government was higher than the World Bank’s forecast of a 7.5-percent increase next year.

Other economists were more optimistic.

Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the State Council, or China’s Cabinet, said the nation’s economy may grow 10 percent next year because of “the huge potential for domestic consumption and investment.”

Zuo Xiaolei, an analyst at China Galaxy Securities Co, said the country should have no problem achieving 8-percent expansion next year.

“If we try hard enough, it could even be 9 percent,” Zuo said.

To spur growth, China last month unveiled a massive 4-trillion-yuan (US$586 billion) stimulus package and slashed loan interest rates by the most since 1997.

Li Maoyu, a Changjiang Securities Co analyst, said this year’s conference was not likely to announce additional major policies as the government has taken strong actions over the past few months.

“The conference may focus on studying the effectiveness of the existing policies and then decide what to do next,” Li said.

(Source: CRIENGLISH. com)

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Think tank: China economy to grow over 9% in 2009?

? BEIJING, Dec. 2 (Xinhua) — Chinese economy is forecast to grow by more than 9 percent next year, according to an annual blue paper released by the Chinese Academy of Social Science on Tuesday.

? Despite the huge uncertainty in 2009, China could still achieve a 9-percent growth as long as it unveils timely and suitable macro-economic control measures to boost domestic demand, said the blue paper.

World Bank cuts 2009 China growth forecast to 7.5% vs. 9.2?

? BEIJING, Nov. 25 (Xinhua) — The World Bank on Tuesday cut its 2009 forecast for China’s economic growth to 7.5 percent, from 9.2percent previously, in a report released here.

? With the financial crisis spreading globally, the impact on China is expected to intensify amid a global fund squeeze and a slowdown in export growth in 2009, the World Bank said in its China Quarterly Update.
China’s 4 trillion yuan stimulus to boost economy, domestic demand

? BEIJING, Nov. 9 (Xinhua) — China said on Sunday it will loosen credit conditions, cut taxes and embark on a massive infrastructure spending program in a wide-ranging effort to offset adverse global economic conditions by boosting domestic demand.

? This is a shift long advocated by analysts of the Chinese economy and by some within the government. It comes amid indications that economic growth, exports and various industries are slowing.